weather models

Weather Models Show Little Change Long Range

Weather Models Show Little Change Long Range

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Weather Models Show Little Change Long Range

We are getting into the first of the three summer months of June, July, and August. We have seen this cool and gloomy pattern dominate much of the month of May with the exception of two short periods where temperatures took off and we had some early tastes of summertime. Looking ahead over the next 10 days to 2 weeks we see that weather systems are going to be generally moving along. The problem however is the displaced jet stream in the Eastern US that remains rather far to the south. This is going to pose issues along the way with chances for rain. Warm days will occur but they will be the odd day here and there or perhaps 2 days back to back at most.

WEATHER MODELS EUROPEAN UPPER AIR FORECAST FRIDAY

weather models

The upper air forecast of the European pretty much illustrates the problem. This is the upper air forecast for Friday morning and all the weather models are in line with this. While there is no blocking of significance, there are above normal pressures across much of the far North Atlantic. At least there is enough to displace that jet stream southward into the Northeast. As each one of these systems in the east moves out, another one comes right in to take its place.

WEATHER MODELS UPPER AIR FORECAST EUROPEAN MODEL MONDAY JUNE 5 2017

weather models

This next system could lead to problems late in the weekend with rain approaching at some point Sunday or perhaps it could hold off until later Sunday into Sunday night. At least with no block in Greenland we can have some warm days in the mix. Thursday should finally be okay area wide and Friday/Saturday look to be warm as temperatures make a run into the 80s on both those days.

WEATHER MODELS GFS MODEL SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY JUNE 4-6TH

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weather models

The GFS model would suggest that the rain could hold off until late Sunday. We’ll see how it looks in terms of timing. Also notice that after a first surge of rain, the weather front stalls out and it sets up for more rain possibilites late Monday into Tuesday as the upper air system swings east. The bottom line is that there will be unsettled conditions going forward and persistent sunshine and warm weather will be rather evasive in the longer term forecast period.

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