weather models

Weather Models Pattern Change Remains On Course

Weather Models Pattern Change Remains On Course

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Weather Models Pattern Change Remains On Course

Weather models overnight and today show very little change in the outlook going forward. This week remains a thaw week with a bit of an exception developing (somewhat) going into this weekend. Long range signals continue point to a colder pattern and possibly a stormier pattern though that part of the equation that is always a dicey proposition.

weather models

There are 3 important developments to pay attention to. The first is the fact that the North Atlantic Oscillation is going negative which means blocking is going to develop this week in the North Atlantic. This is going to probably keep things from getting out of hand on the warm side. In fact the onshore flow that sets up late this week could keep things raw and chilly next weekend but we will deal with that in the short range. The East Pacific Oscillation will go from off the wall positive to negative beginning on January 25th ish. This strongly favors the return of a colder pattern across North America. Finally the Pacific North America pattern goes positive which means a ridge in the west and that could favor storminess in the East.

WEATHER MODELS EUROPEAN JANUARY 19-25 2016

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weather models

The European today I believe has the best idea going forward though the models all seem to be on the same page to some degree. I do believe the warm up gets tempered by the onshore flow that sets up beginning on Friday and lasting through next weekend.

weather models

In the meantime there will be chances for rain this week beginning Tuesday and then again over next weekend and early next week. The European keys on a major storm developing and heading to the lower Great Lakes. That storm will be the catylist going forward.

WEATHER MODELS GFS JANUARY 28-31 2017

weather models

The upper air pattern on the GFS becomes “colder” for late month. I put that in quotation marks because it may take time for cold air to build up. The question of whether this is going to be a temporary flip or one that lasts a few weeks remains. The question of how stormy the pattern will be going forward is also going to stay unanswered though with the active Pacific jet, I think there will be opportunities.

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