weather models

Weather Models Grow Bullish on Tropical Storm Development

Weather Models Grow Bullish on Tropical Storm Development

Weather Models Grow Bullish on Tropical Storm Development

Weather models in general both late this morning and late this afternoon are growing more bullish on the development of a tropical wave now south of the Cabo Verde Islands and moving west. It is amazing how fast the tropical atlantic went active once the strong upper low in the South Central Atlantic pulled away to the northeast. With a less hostile enviornment, we have the edge of this wave on the southeast corner of the water vapor loop and you can see how well developed this wave already is. Weather models actually strengthen this to a tropical storm in the next 60 hours and to a hurricane by 120 hours. We will of course have to get to a depression first but conditions seem favorable for further development.  The National Hurricane Center has now raised the probability of development to 40 percent in the next 48 hours and to 80 percent in the next 5 days.

We also have a tropical wave in the Eastern Caribbean which flared up some today. That system is moving westward and conditions will become favorable for development when it reaches the Western Caribbean in another day or two. The National Hurricane Center has now raised the probability here to 40 percent.

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The upper air flow would suggest a west or west northwest motion for the next few days for the system in the Eastern Atlantic. Here is what the GFS model late this afternoon did with this system by late Sunday night.

WEATHER MODELS GROW BULLISH ON TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT

GFS MODEL SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT..CLICK TO ANIMATE

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The upper air flow favors westward motion and in fact it should be noted that this may still wind up being further south than modeled. We have already seen this happen twice with Tropical Storms Brett & Don. Obviously weather models in the long long range should be taken with a huge salt mine of salt. We still have to see this system reach tropical depression status let alone tropical storm or hurricane.

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

 

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