Weather Models Bullish Noreaster March Snow
EURO MODEL, GFS MODEL, CANADIAN MODEL ALL SHIFT LEFT
WESTERN RIDGE REMAINS KEY TO FORECAST
First off maybe I should take stands against snow more often. Models today seem to be coming together and all three models shifted to well to the left. It is clear that we see Weather Models Bullish Noreaster March Snow across the board. What is happening goes back to what we discussed yesterday.
Weather Models Bullish Noreaster March Snow YESTERDAY’S EURO MODEL UPPER AIR FORECAST FOR MONDAY MORNING
The map above was the European upper air forecast map for Monday morning. The key was the system in the west which the Euro model crashed into the coast which weakens the ridge, which in turn weakens the trough. The GFS model, Canadian model, and the NAM model tonight keep that west coast system a little further west which keeps the ridge in tact. Now comes the new European model for the same time frame.
Weather Models Bullish Noreaster March Snow TODAY’S EURO MODEL UPPER AIR FORECAST FOR MONDAY
The differences in the two runs is very important. The system off the west coast is deeper and further left. This makes the ridge just a little bit stronger and the trough in the east a little bit deeper and further left. If this is correct, then the odds of a noreaster and a mid March snowstorm for the northeast are increasing. Now from this point we need to see the following.
CONFIRMATION ON THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS
This is obvious. The fact that the models seem to be zeroing in and coming closer together is a bullish sign
NO PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM IN THE EAST
A complete phase would shift the coastal low even further west creating a coast hugger which would bring rain to the coast and shift heavy snows inland. The strongly negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) would argue against this.
Weather Models Bullish Noreaster March Snow EURO MODEL SURFACE MAP FOR MONDAY MORNING
The surface map for Monday morning has a deep low northeast of Cape Cod. If the models are correct snow would develop during the mid to late afternoon Sunday and continue Sunday night and ending by daybreak Monday morning..starting and ending sooner west and south and a little late north and east. Models are fairly close on the timing. So the bulk of the precipitation falling at night is key because that will stick..assuming the models are correct.
Obviously we have a long way to go on this. I think right now that there is a chance we could have a more phased look. But it certainly appears that models seem to be coming into agreement here on the increasing chance for a noreaster this weekend and for a significant snowfall for the northeast and interior Middle Atlantic states.
Weather Models Bullish Noreaster March Snow EURO MODEL SNOWFALL FORECAST MAP ENDING MONDAY MORNING
The Euro model snowfall forecast map is the model’s view based on this run and NOT MY FORECAST.
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