weather models

Weather Models Blocking Signals Grow Stronger

Weather Models Blocking Signals Grow Stronger

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Weather Models Blocking Signals Grow Stronger

Coastal Low Gets Pattern Switch Underway This Weekend

Todays weather models continue the bullish trend of showing increased blocking developing over the next several weeks. Specifically today’s model runs are even more bullish than the last few days.

weather models

The North Atlantic Oscillation begins to trend downward and turns sharply negative next week. The East Pacific Oscillation turns sharply negative even faster and is strongly negative late this week and this weekend. This puts the weekend weather system into play and we may see the first significant snows in the Northeast this weekend inland.

WEATHER MODELS EUROPEAN FORECAST SATURDAY NOVEMBER 18TH

weather models

Once tonight’s weather system plays through with some rain on Tuesday the rest of the week looks quiet until the next system comes into play for the weekend. The weather map is taking on an increasingly blocky look with a deep jet stream pattern developing across the United States. The European model shows an Atlantic Ocean low offshore. This and the building ridge to the east in the Atlantic forces the Great Lakes trough to dive southeastward creating a deep upper air feature just off the east coast.

WEATHER MODELS EUROPEAN SUNDAY NOVEMBER 19TH

weather models

This is a very deep very cold upper air feature aloft on all the models though the European gets there the fastest of the GFS and Canadian. The lower atmosphere temperatures get very cold after Sunday morning.

weather models

This is early in the game however this could be a situation where elevated areas might get a surprise. The European model actually brings measurable snow down to the coast with accumulating snows not that far inland. The GFS run total snowfall is further northwest.

weather models

We will be watching model trends obviously. The key in my view is if the strength of the Atlantic low to the east forces development further south or if it is weaker than this system will wind up shifting to the north. The European model runs seem to be trending southward at the moment.

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