Weather Models Bi Polar Behavior
Weather Models Bi Polar Behavior
We have been seeing extreme model flip flops back and forth for the last several days, It seems to me that ever since the models did their upgrades, the volatility from model run to model run has increased considerably. Add to this a strong negative North Atlantic Oscillation and a lot of turmoil in the stratosphere, and you have the ingredients for a lot of forecast flip flops. It is important in situations like this to gain a grasp of what is happening in the atmosphere and why it is happening. Right now there is a lot going on.
The NAM model for Sunday evening illustrates very well what is happening. We have 3 distinct short waves in play. The first in the Great Lakes is most definable on the European and Nam models and almost non existent on the GFS and Canadian weather models. If this is an intact system then we could see a period of light precipitation Sunday night into Monday morning in the form of either light rain or some wet snow. As of right now the European model is delayed due to a power outage. After that it is the system in the southwest that weather models have been having huge difficulty with and how that system interacts (if at all) with the third short wave in the Northwest. Earlier this week weather models were basically phasing this system and creating a huge blizzard for the upper midwest. What seems more likely now is that rather than phase, that shortwave is going to get kicked eastward separately and ahead of the system in the Northwest. If this is the case then we can take off the idea of a major blizzard in the midwest and focus on a low heading into the Ohio Valley and redeveloping off the Middle Atlantic Coast. This would make some sense given the large blocking signal we have in the North Atlantic.
WEATHER MODELS GFS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY CLICK TO ANIMATE
Now if the GFS weather model is correct (and I don’t know if it is) it would argue for a colder look across the northeast and opens the door for some snow and ice across inland areas from Northern Pennsylvania to upstate NY and New England and it could even argue for some snow or sleet at the start along coastal areas. However the system in the southwest remains the big question here. Are models correct in ejecting this system out faster. Last night’s European was not that different from today’s GFS.
WEATHER MODELS LAST NIGHT’S EUROPEAN WEATHER MODEL
The European model had a weaker look here but a similar idea. You can see a low moving into the Texas Oklahoma panhandle as the refection of system 3. Today’s GFS does nothing with that and basically brings through a cold front on Wednesday with much colder air for later next week.
Needless to say we have to figure this puzzle out going forward. The longer range on the models continues to look progressively colder over time and we will explore that later this evening when we have the entire run of the European model.
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