weather models

Weather Model Energy Issues

Weather Model Energy Issues

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Weather Model Energy Issues

When we watch model run after model run change the profile of the upper atmosphere in the long range it becomes very tough trying to get a gauge what is going to happen. We have seen models shift back and forth from run to run about a possible nor’easter for the middle of next week. The problem is that there is a lot of energy running around so each model run times things out differently. You go from one run looking completely disorganized and “unphased” to something organized and “phased” Phasing refers to 2 waves of energy in 2 separate jet streams phasing together as 1.

WEATHER MODELS GFS LAST 2 RUNS FOR NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT

weather model

gfs174 weather model

The differences here are very important because an unphased look makes for a non event while a phased look makes for a major rain storm along the east coast. I will take it out 24 hours further and we can look at the resulting surface maps.

WEATHER MODELS GFS SURFACE NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT

weather model

weather model

The European weather model is having similar issues from run to run as well as it tries to decide whether to phase or unphase.

WEATHER MODELS EUROPEAN YESTERDAY’S RUN FOR NEXT THURSDAY MORNING

weather model

WEATHER MODELS EUROPEAN TODAY’S RUN FOR NEXT THURSDAY MORNING

euro216 weather model

It is going to be back and forth, back and forth for the next 3 or 4 days. In the meantime we will continue to just see fast moving weak cold fronts coming through with fast moving shots of cool to cold air as we move through the weekend.

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

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