Weather Front Stalls South Snow Late Monday Into Tuesday

The weather front that brought the rain to the area into this afternoon (and it continues in South Jersey) is slowing down and it will gradually stall out this evening along the East Coast back into the Northeast Gulf of Mexico. The bottom of the front shows a bit of curvature on the satellite picture this afternoon telling us that a wave is developing on this front. At least for tonight and into Monday morning there will be no weather issues to worry about. Skies will remain cloudy overnight into Monday morning and temperatures which managed their way into the 50s today will head down into the 30s by Monday morning.

US SATELLITE

REGIONAL RADAR

We mentioned the other day how difficult this situation was for later Monday into Tuesday morning. Note that the northern edge of the rain remains pretty far to the west and north. This is probably a sign that the low that develops off the Southeast Coast will probably get reeled in a little further west. Complicating that is colder air swinging in from the Great Lakes with an upper trough. It would seem that some snow is likely to develop late in the day Monday along Coastal New Jersey & Long Island. Monday morning into the early afternoon should be dry

LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY

LOCAL RADAR PHILADELPHIA

The latest NAM model generates snow on the northwest side of the coastal low mainly south and east of the New Jersey Turnpike and then east across NYC, Long Island, Southern Westchester & Connecticut. This would start during the mid to late afternoon and last into the early morning hours on Tuesday.

NAM MODEL 5PM MONDAY TO 1AM TUESDAY CLICK TO ANIMATE

There is still a lot of uncertainty here. The upper trough to the west remains a separate entity as it swings east. Cold air will be draining southward on Monday into Monday night. How much of that cold air is able to make it in here remains a question. The NAM drops temperatures into the upper 20s and lower 30s over a large portion of the area by Monday evening. How much precipitation is going to fall? The NAM model would suggest a slushy couple of inches is possible.

NAM MODEL SNOW FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY

Some of the other models are suggesting the same idea. We will remain agnostic about this until later this evening. The pulling back of precipitation westward would be no surprised since it has happened a number of times in the last several months. We will wait to see more clues and make a decision on this later this evening.