Warm Weekend Storm Threats Continue
We will be making the transition into a milder air mass this weekend but it is after this that we have 2 precipitation events to deal with. The first one comes Sunday night and Monday. We mentioned yesterday that there was a cheap thrill potential for this inland areas of Northeast Pennsylvania, Northwest New Jersey, the Hudson Valley and Connecticut mainly north of route 84 and we continue to believe this is the case based on the afternoon model runs. This is my early call snowfall forecast map for Sunday night Monday Morning.
Warm Weekend Storm Threats Continue
JOE’S SNOWFALL FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
The European is actually is surprisingly aggressive with precipitation amounts Sunday night with .25 to .50 inches of liquid near the coast and showing .50 to .75 inches of rain in the area where I designated for 2 to 3 inches. The atmosphere is going to be borderline cold inland. I think there is a chance that it could go to a mix as you head south toward the coast before it ends Monday morning.
Warm Weekend Storm Threats Continue NAM MODEL SUNDAY NIGHT
The NAM model today only goes out to Sunday evening but there is a fairly decent area of precipitation and the European actually deepens the wave a little bit when it goes offshore to our south Monday morning. If the atmosphere was just a little bit colder and a little more dynamic, I might get a little nervous for a last minute surprise at the coast. But for now this is what I’m thinking.
Warm Weekend Storm Threats Continue European Model Monday Morning
With regards to the second storm for the middle of the week, The European has come in colder and decidedly less amplified on this run with an offshore track. This matches the GFS view and the ensemble means which have been showing an offshore track for days. We will address this storm with a JOESTRADAMUS post this evening.
OVERNIGHT GFS/EUROPEAN/CANADIAN VIDEO ANALYSIS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SNOW FORECASTS
LATEST JOESTRADAMUS ON THE LONG RANGE
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