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Warm Front Settles Overhead 80 West 60 West Gloomy Friday Weekend
The map above shows the warm front this morning shaped in what we in the weather world often refer to as a hairpin. The mountains in Pennsylvania to the west and the colder ocean to the east create a tendency for the front to get distorted. Warm air and 80s will push into Western Pennsylvania and Western New York. Sometimes these fronts make it through here, sometimes they don’t. There will be a point where this comes to a grinding halt. The question is where. If you believe that NYC is that magic midpoint then it will reach 80 or better to the west and closer to 60 as you head east.
One thing that supports the idea that the warm front has some success today is the relative shallowness of the low cloud cover. There really isnt’t a lot holding this front back. The high to the northeast is rather weak so we could see this move east and get some upside in temperatures. Radar this morning shows the thicker cloud cover and the showers crossing NY State to New England basically right along I-90. Those showers are moving from west to east.
SATELLITE
REGIONAL RADAR
The showers on the local radar are showing up on the Upton site this morning but there isn’t anything anywhere close to the coast. Late this afternoon we will likely see some showers and thunderstorms popping up and the Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk of severe weather today
The warm front pretty much is the boundary line of where there could be thunderstorms this evening. This is due to another weak cold front that is passing through and the front will be sagging southward and stalling out across Northern Maryland to the Delmarva Peninsula. Friday it will be back to an onshore flow so we are back to 50s from NYC north and east and 70s from Southern New Jersey south and west.
Friday also brings another cold front and another chance for downpours or a thunderstorm though they should be scattered in nature. This would occur Friday evening into the first part of Friday night. Now it is on to the weekend where we will be setting up for the next and stronger wave of low pressure. Saturday may wind up being dry with clouds and some breaks of sun before the clouds thicken up. We may get away with no rain on Saturday but it does mean that much of not all of Sunday will be an issue rain wise. Low pressure goes to our south which puts us in the ocean soupy flow. Saturday’s highs will be in the 60s to near 70 but Sunday temperatures may wind up settling in the 50s for highs.
With a low tracking to the south rainfall amounts could easily be in the 1 to 2 inch range and the GFS is rather aggressive with rain across Southern Pennsylvania to New Jersey showing 2 to 3 inch rain amounts but we will be cautious on these amounts for now. It does look like a washout for much of Sunday. Weather conditions improve for Monday where we we may (hopefully) have a day of sunshine.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
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