Warm 50s Through Saturday Sharply Colder Some Snow Sunday
Warm 50s Through Saturday Sharply Colder Some Snow Sunday
We do have colder weather and a chance for snow Sunday but before that we have today and Saturday. Our streak of 50 degree plus highs continues today as we have a nice launching pad to start off the day and highs will reach the mid to upper 50s. I’m going to go above the NWS forecast since it doesn’t look like we have much cloud cover around on the satellite picture this morning to our west and north so what is going to stop it?
We have no issues tonight nor for Saturday, though a cold front is going to be approaching and moving through, the much colder air behind it won’t come in until Saturday night. Saturday will be the better of the two weekend days. Sunshine will give way to some clouds later in the day. Again I will go a little higher than the National Weather Service digital forecast and go for mid 50s to near or even just over 60 in some places. The warmest spots should be Central and South Jersey southward.
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WEATHER RADAR
The cold front will move through and stall offshore and southward along the East Coast. A strong upper trough to our west will swing eastward and a weak wave develops on the front. The wave will be producing precipitation but that will be offshore. The upper trough to the west will generate an area of snow as it moves eastward. Sunday morning we will wake up to temperatures in the 20s and we will likely hold in the 20s to maybe a few lower 30s during the day.
Now for the snow forecast from the Weather Prediction Center which shows a 20-30% chance for at least 2 inches from Southwest Virginia to Southern New England with a 50% or higher chance in Southeastern New England. These probabilities are up a bit from yesterday’s forecast and shifted to the east. My early call snow forecast that I issued last night remains the same for the time being.
I think the area that has the better chance of picking up a few inches will be coastal New Jersey, Long Island and Southern Connecticut eastward I’m a little further east with the western edge cutting it off just west of NYC and Philadelphia. Snow showers could whiten the ground west of there. There is a ton of disagreement regarding snow amounts and where. Models are split between north and west of the coast getting more snow verses te coast and visa versa, Timing of snow seems to be at issue as well. Models vary with some bringing snow in during the early morning hours Sunday and over with Sunday afternoon. Others don’t start the snow until Sunday morning and don’t end it until late Monday evening or later. NWS snow forecast is lined up close to my own and for now that seems to be a fair compromise. For now I do not think there is much upside here unless we see signs of the upper trough being stronger and further to the left (west). The ocean low is a non factor here as it is too far offshore. Once the snow ends we clear out Sunday night with Monday morning lows in the teens. It will be very cold Monday with sunshine but highs only in the 20s and then down to the teens Monday night.
We are on course to see the cold air pull out on Tuesday and the upper pattern changing this week to a warmer one. Temperatures will be into the 30s Tuesday, 40s Wednesday, and 50s Thursday and Friday. We will be dry through Thursday before we deal with a windswept soaking rain Thursday night into Friday.
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