Very Warm Humid Thunderstorms Tonight Severe Weather Risks Inland Unsettled Next Several Days

Very Warm Humid Thunderstorms Tonight

Severe Weather Risks Inland Unsettled Next Several Days

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Very Warm Humid Thunderstorms Tonight

Severe Weather Risks Inland Unsettled Next Several Days

It is a very warm and humid day across the region from Eastern Pennsylvania to Southern New England. Dew points have risen into the lower 70s. The air mass is increasingly unstable as temperatures rise today to the mid and upper 80s (though cooler at the shore) We have a cold front approaching from the northwest and this sets up severe weather risk for this evening and tonight.

The Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk for severe weather inland from Northwest New Jersey westward into Pennsylvania and northeastward into Interior New England. Thunderstorms will develop in the slight risk zone late this afternoon and move into the marginal risk zone later this evening as the front begins to near the coastal plain. For this afternoon we are seeing sunshine producing ample daytime heating to set off these storms late today and tonight.

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We are already seeing thunderstorms developing in Western NY and Western Pennsylvania at midday and will monitor their progress as they head east. There is tornado risk in the slight risk zone  of 2 percent mainly from Northeast Pennsylvania northeastward into the Catskills and the middle and upper Hudson Valley. It continues into Western New England.

The front is going to slow down and stall out virtually right overhead and will likely be a factor in our weather for the next several days. There are two complicating factors here. One is the remnants of Nicholas which until this morning, it seemed that it would just rain itself out in the deep south. However some models are suggesting that some of Nicholas’s remnant moisture will get entrained along the frontal boundary and move northeastward.

The other complicating feature is low pressure that is starting to form off the Southeast US Coast. This may become a tropical depression or a tropical storm  as it inches northward offshore. It pins the area in between the stalled front and the coastal low. For now I believe this means that we will at the very least have some cloud issues Thursday into at least Saturday. There may be a few leftover scattered showers around Thursday but nothing that amounts to much. The same holds for Friday. Temperatures both days will be in the 70s with nighttime lows in the 60s. Humidity levels will remain on the high side. If the offshore low develops and starts to move away to the northeast late Friday it could allow drier air to the northwest to come in  and make for a decent weekend of some sunshine for Saturday and Sunday. Even though the NAM model shows otherwise, we are going to lean to the idea that the offshore system develops enough to start getting things to move along and bring improvement for the weekend. However we are going to watch developments carefully here. The offshore low is a bit of a wild card here.

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Please note that with regards to any severe weather,  tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.

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