tropical storm

TROPICAL STORM WARNING BERMUDA

TROPICAL STORM WARNING BERMUDA

TROPICAL STORM WARNING BERMUDA

HURRICANE WATCH POSTED

TROPICAL STORM KARL STRENGTHENING

COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH LATE TONIGHT

Tropical Storm Karl continues to move along to the northwest and becoming better organized. Once Karl decoupled from the cold upper low the environment became much more favorable for strengthening. Ocean water temperatures there are in the mid to upper 80s and wind shear is very low. Karl could become a hurricane but probably after it passes east of Bermuda Saturday morning. Tropical Storm conditions will begin affecting Bermuda later today and continue overnight into Saturday.

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You can see Tropical Storm Karl on the satellite loop below and the cold front that is approaching us this afternoon and evening. That front is part of the strengthening upper level westerly winds that will turn Karl sharply northeast tonight and steer it out to sea. Meanwhile for us we have a big push of autumn air coming down from the north that will keep things cool here through at least Tuesday.

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URNT12 KWBC 231159
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE  AL122016
A. 23/11:34:44Z
B. 28 deg 04 min N
  064 deg 50 min W
C. NA
D. 33 kt
E. 089 deg 13 nm
F. 185 deg 45 kt
G. 090 deg 19 nm
H. EXTRAP 995 mb
I. 18 C / 2288 m
J. 20 C / 2288 m
K. 12 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.1 / 2 nm
P. NOAA3 WG12A KARL OB 23
SLP EXTRAP FROM 8000 FT RADAR ALT
MAX FL WIND 61 KT 315 / 23 NM 08:28:25Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 089 / 9 NM FROM FL CNTR
COVECTIVE BANDING NEAR CENTER WEST SEMICIRCLE

The latest report from an Air Force plane shows Karl has strengthened further with pressures dropping to 995MB and a flight level wind of 61 knots 23 NM northwest of the center. This would translate to maximum sustained winds of 60 mph at the surface.

...KARL FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SATURDAY...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 64.8W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Hurricane Watch for
Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 64.8 West.  Karl is
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through this evening.  A turn toward the
northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected on
Saturday.  On the forecast track, the center of Karl should pass
near or to the east of Bermuda late tonight or early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Karl
is expected to become a hurricane on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda tonight,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  Hurricane
conditions are also possible on Bermuda tonight.

RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 5 inches over Bermuda through Saturday and early Sunday.

TORNADOES:  Isolated tornadoes are possible on Bermuda later today
and tonight.

SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are affecting Bermuda and are
expected to increase during the next couple of days.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.

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