Tropical Storm Joaquin Getting Stronger As It Drifts Westward

Morning satellite pictures show Tropical Storm Joaquin is better organized with the center beginning to tuck in under the main area of convection. Winds have been increased to 45 mph and they are thought to be conservative evidence since the system does seem to have a well defined circulation.
sat

 

...JOAQUIN GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING WHILE DRIFTING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 70.8W
ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM ENE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/vis-animated.gif

The upper low to the northeast of Tropical Storm Joaquin continues to pull away to the northeast and this may eventually relax the northerly shear that has been going on. Also notice the big build up of clouds in the east and the tropical moisture ahead of the next cold front. That is tonight and Wednesday’s rain for us which will hopefully be on the order of a couple of inches.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/vis-animated.gif

There are all sorts of developments regarding some overnight models and what they do with this storm. Here is the bottom line…whether Joaquin moves up the coast or not, we will be impacted by a strong onshore flow, gales, coastal flooding, and heavy rains much like you would any noreaster. If Joaquin comes into play it could complicate matters further depending on what exactly we are dealing with.

nhcprog

 

 

The National Hurricane Center forecast is  an update of the previous one with a little slower movement. Some of the models continue to strengthen this to a hurricane later in the forecast period. Be advised  that you are going to be hearing all sorts of things and seeing all sorts of maps being displayed all over creation. I am trying to keep this as straight forward as I can as the forecast journey continues.

 

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