San Juan Puerto Rico radar this morning showing some showers coming in from off the ocean in advance of Tropical Storm Erika.
We have seen a little bit of strengthening overnight and the satellite/radar presentations this morning all look pretty decent. The tropical storm seems to be holding its own in an overall hostile environment. If it makes it through Friday conditions over the weekend when it is closer to the Bahamas will be favorable for gradual strengthening.
There really isn’t much change in the forecast track or the overall thinking on this. Models overnight were consistent with prior runs in one form or another as they make adjustments left and right. I will wait for more information later today with regards to Erika and the threat to the US. Right now I really believe that Erika will not be a threat to the Northeast based on the upper air pattern pattern being indicated by all the models.