You can certainly see the difference between yesterday and this morning with regards to Tropical Storm Erika as it has gotten a little better organized since yesterday though the winds have been slow to increase. Hurricane Hunter plane this morning found stronger winds so the latest advisory increases the wind back to 45 mph.
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 56.8W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM E OF ANTIGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Anguilla * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * Montserrat * Antigua and Barbuda * St. Kitts and Nevis * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy
Tropical storm conditions will spread into the Leeward Islands today and tonight and Erika might strengthen a little more though conditions are not ideal for strengthening. At this point that Erika has survived to this stage means that we should start paying a little closer attention to a US Southeast Coast/Florida threat over the weekend. I want to wait and see it get left of 65 West before being completely sold on the idea. I do think the models have it right that given the strong upper high that is forecast to build from the Atlantic to the SE Coast opens the alley way through the Bahamas and possibly to Florida.
This is the European’s idea. What we also don’t know is how strong a system are we going to be dealing with. Track is one thing to forecast but intensity is quite another. We will try and get a better handle on this later today.