The easy part of this forecast is for our area in that we have great weather and sunshine with low humidity and seasonal temperatures to enjoy for the rest of the week. Easy, straight forward, and to the point!

euro24Nothing like a nice deep trough as shown here on the European 24 hour forecast for tonight. Dry air flow from the north and it is going to take a couple of days for the trough to lift out. This allows high pressure to build in. Blue skies and sunshine!!! Temperatures by day will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s..nights will be in the 60s urban areas to 50s and even some 40s in colder interior spots!


gfs48So it looks good and with high moving out over the weekend it means of course warmer and more humid conditions but it will be sunshine for much of the weekend and as I see it, a minimal chance of any downpour or thunderstorm through Sunday!

Now for Tropical Storm Erika. We are still waiting to see what happens to Erika once it goes west of 65 West (roughly Puerto Rico) as it is forecast to do. erika

erika1First off these satellite pictures are about 24 hours apart from yesterday to this morning and there has been noticeable improvement in the satellite presentation though it has not yet translated into increasing wind. Still the issue of whether Erika would survive was open for discussion and the continued improvement in the satellite presentation lends support to the idea that Erika will survive.

euro120 euro500120Now with regards to track just about all of the models are pretty well clustered together as they take Erika pretty much west northwestward just north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, through the Southern Bahamas and toward Florida. This hinges on the the idea that a ridge of high pressure aloft aggressively builds northwestward from the Atlantic to the Southeast US Coast. All the models seem to show this. I will address this morning on my tropical posts during the day today. But at this point assuming Erika holds together (looking increasingly likely) the threat to Florida or the SE Coast is a little more elevated this morning than it was yesterday. Time frame would be for Sunday into Monday.