Tropical Storm Development Appears More Likely
RECORD HIGHS NEXT FEW DAYS AND TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPEMT POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS..VIDEO
NAM MODEL ANALYSIS
Tropical Storm Development Appears More Likely
For now we see disturbed weather moving to the east from the Bahamas and it has a disorganized look to it. Showers however are increasing today and all weather models develop a low pressure center this afternoon and slowly intensify it as we go through Tuesday into Wednesday. My guess is that this system may start as something more subtropical than anything else and then gradually become more tropical with time. The National Hurricane Center has increased the possibility of tropical storm development to 50 percent over the next 5 days.
Now assuming that a tropical storm does develop here in the next few days it will be named OTTO. Secondly the system is over an area where the waters were impacted by Hurricane Nicole & Hurricane Matthew though neither storm crossed the area where this system is forming. Matthew straddled along and just east of 80 West and Nicole traveled along or just west of 65 West. This places this system in an area where the water has seen up welling and cooling but perhaps not quite to the level to the west and east of its position. The cooled off ocean is probably going to have an impact in terms of how strong any tropical system will get. One thing model (among others) that models have not done well with is intensity so we will see where this winds up going.
The Nam model this morning develops what appears to be at least a subtropical cyclone east of t he Bahamas by Tuesday evening. The structure of the radar echos suggests something subtropical in nature verses purely tropical but I suspect it would gradually become more tropical over time. Models favor a west northwest to northwest course from here thanks to the big ridge in the east. Ultimately we will have to see how this system reacts to a deep trough swinging eastward. Ideally because of the drought the best thing that could happen would be a tropical system that is not too developed that brings up lots of moisture so we can break this drought. That may wind up being a tall order but lets see what longer range global models do with this later today.
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