tropical storm

Tropical Storm Development Appears Likely

Tropical Storm Development Appears More Likely

RECORD HIGHS NEXT FEW DAYS AND TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPEMT POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS..VIDEO

NAM MODEL ANALYSIS

Tropical Storm Development Appears More Likely

For now we see disturbed weather moving to the east from the Bahamas and it has a disorganized look to it. Showers however are increasing today and all weather models develop a low pressure center this afternoon and slowly intensify it as we go through Tuesday into Wednesday.  My guess is that this system may start as something more subtropical than anything else and then gradually become more tropical with time. The National Hurricane Center has increased the possibility of tropical storm development to 50 percent over the next 5 days.

storm free

Now assuming that a tropical storm does develop here in the next few days it will be named OTTO. Secondly the system is over an area where the waters were impacted by Hurricane Nicole & Hurricane Matthew though neither storm crossed the area where this system is forming. Matthew straddled along and just east of 80 West and Nicole traveled along or just west of 65 West.  This places this system in an area where the water has seen up welling and cooling but perhaps not quite to the level to the west and east of its position. The cooled off ocean is probably going to have an impact in terms of how strong any tropical system will get. One thing model (among others) that models have not done well with is intensity so we will see where this winds up going.

tropical storm

tropical storm

The Nam model this morning develops what appears to be at least a subtropical cyclone east of t he Bahamas by Tuesday evening. The structure of the radar echos suggests something subtropical in nature verses purely tropical but I suspect it would gradually become more tropical over time. Models favor a west northwest to northwest course from here thanks to the big ridge in the east. Ultimately we will have to see how this system reacts to a deep trough swinging eastward. Ideally because of the drought the best thing that could happen would be a tropical system that is not too developed that brings up lots of moisture so we can break this drought. That may wind up being a tall order but lets see what longer range global models do with this later today.

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

WINTER 2016-2017 PART 1 OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURES

WINTER 2016-2017 PART 2 ARCTIC SEA ICE AND SIBERIAN SNOW COVER

WINTER 2016-2017 PART 3 NEW JERSEY PREVIEW

WINTER 2016-2017 PART 4 EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA PREVIEW

FiOS1 News Weather Forecast For Long Island

FiOS1 News Weather Forecast For New Jersey

FiOS1 News Weather Forecast For Hudson Valley

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SNOW FORECASTS

JOIN JOESTRADAMUS ON YOUTUBE!

LATEST JOESTRADAMUS ON THE LONG RANGE

LONG ISLAND WEATHER

NEW YORK WEATHER

 

Weather App

storm free

Don’t be without Meteorologist Joe Cioffi’s weather app. It is really a meteorologist app because you get my forecasts and my analysis and not some automated computer generated forecast based on the GFS model. This is why your app forecast changes every 6 hours. It is model driven with no human input at all. It gives you an icon, a temperature and no insight whatsoever.

It is a complete weather app to suit your forecast needs. All the weather information you need is right on your phone. Android or I-phone, use it to keep track of all the latest weather information and forecasts. This weather app is also free of advertising so you don’t have to worry about security issues with your device. An accurate forecast and no worries that your device is being compromised.

Use it in conjunction with my website and my facebook and twitter and you have complete weather coverage of all the latest weather and the long range outlook. The website has been redone and upgraded. Its easy to use and everything is archived so you can see how well Joe does or doesn’t do when it comes to forecasts and outlooks.

Just click on the google play button or the apple store button on the sidebar for my app which is on My Weather Concierge. Download the app for free. Subscribe to my forecasts on an ad free environment for just 99 cents a month.
Get my forecasts in the palm of your hand for less than the cost of a cup of Joe!

 

googleplay

 


storm free

 

 

 


Liked it? Take a second to support joestradamus on Patreon!