LOCATION...11.2N 41.1W ABOUT 1385 MI...2235 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
Satellite pictures overnight and this morning don’t show much change as the system is a little elongated east west and it continues to move toward the west. The satellite loop this morning shows that this system is embedded in the easterlies with not much shearing going on which will continue to favor strengthening. Dry air is located west of the storm and this is a factor in that it could get entrained in the circulation down the road and slow strengthening down or even level it off for awhile. Those are matters for a few days from now. Bear in mind that a weaker system would mean a more westward track while a more developed system would likely move further north so intensity is key as to where Danny winds up
Most of the model plots take the storm over the northern Leeward Islands and close but just north of Puerto Rico on a steady west northwest course that will probably begin in the next 24 hours or so. The last day would be 6 days from now. These plots are from yesterday’s model guidance.
Looking at the European out a week from today shows a strong upper high east northeast of the Bahamas and it would seem that the course would follow the periphery of that high as we move through time; assuming of course that this is how it really looks. This is a simplistic view on the atmosphere to go by but for now it does seem to make some sense. Still this is one week down the road. Notice that there is a trough and upper low in the east with westerly winds aloft down to North Carolina. This is not a look that would favor a storm moving up the east coast. However how the pattern changes beyond 168 would be important.
Those westerly winds aloft continue to lay pretty far south from 168 to 240 which implies the northeast would not be at risk for this. With the upper high where it is one would then have to consider the Bahamas and Florida as a possibility. However remember at this point this is just pure speculation going out 10 days and essentially me thinking out loud. We will of course continue to monitor the progress of Danny in the coming days.