Tropical Depression 8 continues to remain basically stationary this evening and will be moving into a low shear environment overnight and Thursday so it should become the season’s eight tropical storm of the season. Even if that happens the action going on in the eastern US means that this system will eventually begin moving north and then northeast into the open waters of the Atlantic. Meanwhile Tropical Depression Grace is down gone and just a remnant low remains and you can barely find it on the satellite loop.
Very interesting what is going on off the coast of Central America on the Pacific side with alot of convection. You can see alot of that moisture is being drawn northward into the southwest Gulf Of Mexico. We might want to just keep a little bit of an eye on this over the next 5 days as much of that area is forecast to move northward. It doesn’t happen too often but every once in awhile you can get something to come out of it in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. It is a long shot but something to watch since we don’t have much else.
...DEPRESSION EIGHT EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.6N 60.4W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
No changes in the earlier forecast regarding conditions aloft.
The upper flow is responding to a deep digging trough over the Great Lakes while the depression finds itself ahead of that trough in an increasing southwest flow aloft.
Shearing lies along the path of what is left of Grace while tropical depression 8 sits right in the only area where there appears to be light shear in between 2 areas that lie to the west and to the east. With regards to the overall shearing picture in the tropical Atlantic there is a window that appears to open up in about a week to 10 days where shearing across much of the tropical Atlantic appears to be light.
It doesn’t disappear for long but this may be a window for development in this area if you get everything else to come together. That light shear area extends westward into the Bahamas.
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