I can’t remember the last time we had 2 rain events back to back but the models are keying in on the next rain event for the weekend. Now don’t complain because we have seen numerous weekends in a row of great weather. so if we have to lose one and get rain it would be a good thing. At least Saturday now looks good all the way through as the models are slowing things down a bit. This is in response to a strong upper trough that will be swinging out of the midwest. The trough is forecast to weaken as it passes northeast of us but it should hold up enough to give us another good shot of 1 to 2 inches of rain especially if the European is correct.

gfs96 euro96Both models are very similar through 96 hours which is Sunday morning with this very strong upper trough coming out of the midwest. How much rain will depend on how long it holds together. The good news here is that each model run is stronger for a longer period of time which bodes well for the rain to hold together as well.

gfs120 euro120The GFS is a little further south with the closed upper feature than the Euro but the strength of both troughs is ample so Im feeling good about this next shot of rain as well. The rainfall map on the European is not available for reprint but does show 1 to 2 inches across the areas from SE Pennsylvania northward and 2 to 4 inches up the Hudson Valley and points north and east. The GFS and Canadian rainfall maps show total rains over the next 6 days so you have to subtract out 1 to 2 inches or so from the first round of rain Thursday and Thursday night.

gfsprecip gemprecipOnce this system goes by it is back to the ridge position in the east for  a few days later next week. That means that it is not impossible that we could hit 90 degrees again along about Wedneday of next week. UGH!



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