tropical depression tropical storm

Tropical Depression Developing Eastern Atlantic

Tropical Depression Developing Eastern Atlantic

 

Tropical Depression Developing Eastern Atlantic

Judging from the satellite loops this morning it appears that the the tropical wave in the far Eastern Atlantic is getting better organized. Upper air conditions are favorable for this system to develop into a tropical depression or possibly a tropical storm during the next 2 days. The National Hurricane Center rates this an 80 percent chance. The system is tracking northwestward as it begins to edge above 10 degrees north latitude. A track to the west northwest over the next 4 or 5 days is likely.

tropical depression tropical storm

 

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Looking at the water vapor loop below you can see that area of brown to the north of the tropical system. That is dry air that is sitting there. This is not unusual really but it does speak to conditions in the tropical Atlantic overall. We don not see much in the way of strong wind shear in the upper levels of the atmosphere. This seems to have created favorable conditions for development rather early in the hurricane season.  There is a spinning upper low in the central Atlantic but this is not having any impact on this system at all. I would suspect that this could certainly organize into a tropical storm.

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Conditions west of 60 west become a bit more dicey for development. The weaker the system remains the more of a westward trajectory would result. If the system remains weak it will respond to the low level winds being dominated by the Azores high. Right now this seems to be the course shown by global models overnight.

tropical depression tropical storm

 

 

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