Tropical Activity May Pick Up Late Next Week
Two named tropical systems through this point in the hurricane season is probably about average in most years. Activity in the Atlantic Basin tends to rev up in August particularly in the second half of the month and it seems that we may be headed in that direction. The satellite picture below is a snapshot of what it looks like this afternoon. There isn’t much here of importance. We have several tropical waves in the Atlantic; All of which are weak and conditions in the upper atmosphere are unfavorable for development. There is an upper trough north of Puerto Rico creating hostile conditions in the Western Atlantic and in the Caribbean. There is nothing here worth noting for the next 5 days or so.
Next Tuesday brings a cold front through the Northeast with no doubt some severe weather threats along about Tuesday. The front will be another one that will stall out along or just off the Southeast coast of the US. It is from this system that we could see what is often referred to as a home grown type system. They are called home grown since they happen close to the US and get their start from a non tropical system like a degenerating stalled frontal boundary.
A wave is forecast to develop on this stalled boundary and move out to the east. The remaining frontal boundary will sink a little further southeast. There will likely be a second wave that forms on this boundary. From here we see a chance that the low will respond to the very warm ocean (85 degrees+) and an area of light upper air winds developing off the Southeast coast. Systems like this tend to take awhile to get going due to the origins as a cold core type low. Given the time of year and the possibility of somewhat favorable conditions aloft I think there is a chance for something to try to get going in this area. Now whether it amounts to anything or not is another matter entirely
We we look at the general upper flow along the East Coast it is not one that would be favorable for anything to impact the Northeast. We still have a flow from the northwest across the Northeast over next weekend. The flow off the southeast coast is light southwest around the upper high east of the Bahamas.
That northwest flow has been with us since mid June and shows no signs of letting up anytime soon. In fact it is likely to continue to ebb and flow north and south and at some point strengthen again and push further south. Westerly winds in the upper atmosphere effectively carries anything that develops out to sea. As far as anything developing in the tropical Atlantic it is hard to see how it happens with unfavorable conditions continuing there. We may be in a season where the home grown variety type storms will be more dominant. One caveat here is that we are looking at the long range and the volatility in the atmosphere in the long range needs to be considered here. El Nino in the Pacific is now dead and over with. El nino conditions tend to suppress tropical storm development in the Atlantic. The atmosphere may be experiencing a bit of a lag here as far as seeing more favorable conditions for tropical storm development. Perhaps it may show itself during September which is traditionally the most active month of the hurricane season.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.