Thunderstorms Firing Up West, Will They Survive?

We remain in a slight risk for severe weather though the Storm Prediction Center has reduced the northern extent of slight risk over NY State. New Jersey and much of the Eastern half of Pennsylvania remain in a slight risk for severe weather going into this evening. Thunderstorms should be moving across Eastern Pennsylvania between 5pm-6pm and across New Jersey between 6pm & 7pm.

Lead showers have moved across NYC & points eastward which has actually stablized the atmosphere somewhat near the coast. Combined with the marine air and clouds thunderstorms are likely to weaken as the near the coast. The line to the west in Pennsylvania is firing up at the moment and should reach its peak as it moves into Western New Jersey after 6pm.

The HRRR model for 6pm this evening shows the thunderstorms at the peak so I would not be at all surprised to see a few severe thunderstorm warnings being issued when the line passes through.

HRRR MODEL FORECAST 6PM MAY 10, 2018

HRRR MODEL 9PM MAY 10 2018

The northern end of that line falls apart later this evening as it nears the coast again due to the cooler air and the marine influence. The line remains much stronger to the south. The cold front will move through tonight and we are setting up for a nice day Friday with lots of sunshine with most highs in the upper 60s to middle 70s.

FiOS1 News Weather Forecast For Long Island

FiOS1 News Weather Forecast For New Jersey

FiOS1 News Weather Forecast For Hudson Valley