Thunderstorms Around Weekend Weather Questions

Thunderstorms Around Weekend Weather Questions

 

Thunderstorms Around Weekend Weather Questions

We are seeing more clouds coming in from the west this morning as the next cold front begins its approach. That front sets in motion all sorts of complications now for the weekend and forecast adjustments are going to be going on for the next few days. First things first is today which will feature cluods and some sun with the risk for scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening. There is a marginal risk for severe weather which makes sense. The humidity is a bit higher today from yesterday which also makes sense ahead of this cold front. Much of today should be rain free. Temperatures will reach back into the 80s.

SATELLITE LOOP

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REGIONAL RADAR

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Much of the shower activity this morning is to our north moving east into Central New England. Some of that should shift southward later today as the front nears.

LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY

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LOCAL RADAR PHILADELPHIA
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Once the front goes by it will stall out to the south and this begins a series of events for Friday and Saturday. It now appears that Friday day side should be dry and that any rain from the strong upper air disturbance swinging southeast out of the Great Lakes won’t come until later Friday night or during the day Saturday.

GFS MODEL FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING

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The problem is the upper air system which now is stronger but also hangs back along the coast. This really complicates things for the weekend especially for Sunday. If the upper low is still lingering back along the coast, we could see rain late Friday night and Saturday into early afternoon…then showery rains on and off through Sunday and possibly even Monday of next week. It will still get windy along the immediate coast and offshore with winds 25 to 35 knots from the east and then northeast Friday night into Saturday. We said yesterday we will have to see how this evolves, and we continue to have to wait as the upper air issues resolve themselves. Right now Saturday does not look good with rain and heavy downpours in the morning, then leftover showers in the afternoon and temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s on average.

The NAM model I believe has the best idea with rain amounts. I think the best approach with this is forecast 1 to 2 inches of rain with lower amounts north of New York City & Connecticut and higher to the south across New Jersey and then wait and see.

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