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Noreaster Conditions Growing More Likely Coastal New Jersey Long Island

Noreaster Conditions Growing More Likely Coastal New Jersey Long Island

 

Noreaster Conditions Growing More Likely

Coastal New Jersey Long Island Friday Night Saturday AM

Weather models continue to hone in on a developing low along the Delaware Coast Friday night and this could be setting us up for a 12 hour wind and rain event for coastal areas of New Jersey & Long Island. Afternoon as well as late afternoon model runs are coming closer together on this idea. The European and NAM are especially bullish on this and even the late afternoon GFS has come on board with a slower more intense looking low. If this were winter time, the winter storm watches would be going up!

GFS MODEL FRIDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY EVENING

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NAM MODEL FRIDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON 2PM

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The late afternoon NAM & GFS model show the critical elements here in the track of the surface low just offshore. To see a low with pressures under 1000 millibars are unusual in July though not unheard of. Given the time of year the moisture field here is especially rich in subtropical moisture. Both models generate a core of very heavy rains on the order of 4 inches plus though the GFS has this area to the south and east of the coast while the NAM model takes it right overhead.

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Key to all of this is this vigorous upper air trough and “cutoff” low that drops into Northern Virginia. The strength of this upper low and how long it holds together as it lifts out northeastward will determine whether this turns out to be a rain event of a couple of inches for somebody, or if it become something much more substantial. The European model above which is usually good with these sorts of systems is especially well developed. It doesn’t mean it is right but in the past it has handled these sorts of situations quite well so we need to pay attention here.

CANADIAN MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY

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GFS MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY

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NAM MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING

Above are the rainfall forecasts from the 3 major models. The Canadian & Gfs are similar with  1-2 inch rainfalls to about NYC & Long Island with 2 to 3 inches to the south across Central & Southern New Jersey. That area is saturated as it is from rains of the last couple of weeks. The NAM with its more intense features has double those amounts and actually produces some extreme numbers in a strip from Trenton to Sandy Hook to Long Island. All the models at least suggest that flash flood watches are likely to go up for Friday night into Saturday morning. All three models develop winds of 20 to 30 knots with higher gusts for the offshore waters. The immediate coastal areas could get windy for awhile Friday night into Saturday morning. Just like how we monitor models with winter storms we have seen models jog up and down back and forth over the last 2 days but the trend in general seems to be more robust and bullish with every run. Also notice the sharp cut off in the rain once you go north of New York City and that is a consideration here; that areas just north and west of the coast will get much less in terms of rainfall out of this.

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As far as the severe weather threat for Thursday, not surprisingly the Storm Prediction Center has reduced it to a marginal risk which makes more sense. The air over is is fairly dry and I don’t think it would saturate enough, nor do I believe the dynamics are there for any widespread outbreak of severe weather late tomorrow though there certainly could be a few scattered thunderstorms Thursday evening.

SATELLITE LOOP

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REGIONAL RADAR

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No weather issues for tonight other than a few passing clouds as indicated by the satellite loop. The radars are quiet and should be into Thursday afternoon for our area. Temperatures Thursday will be back into the 80s away from the ocean. Friday will depend on how fast we cloud up. If clouds are delayed it could reach the low 80s and then drop back into the 70s. Tonight into Saturday with this system revving up temperatures are likely to find their way back into the 60s again and they will stay there until weather conditions improve Saturday afternoon. No matter what happens Friday night and Saturday, Sunday will be mostly sunny with low humidity and highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

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