Thanksgiving Week Weather Looks Cold Blocky
Thanksgiving Week Weather Looks Cold Blocky
Looking ahead to next week, Thanksgiving week is shaping up to be a cold one with below average temperatures beginning on Sunday and probably lasting all of next week. Blocking is developing in the North Atlantic that models have advertised quite well for the last week or more. Everything from that matter seems on course once we get through this week which will be on the whole a little below average temperature wise with a slight chance for showers Thursday and a better chance for showers on Saturday as a strong cold front moves through. It is behind that front that cold air begins to arrive on Sunday and then locks in.
THANKSGIVING WEEK WEATHER TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES CLICK TO ANIMATE
While the cold air part of the equation is in place remember that this is still November and average high temperatures next week are still around or just above 50 degrees so 10 degrees below normal takes it only down into the lower 40s for daytime highs. This makes the question of snow a matter of how perfect everything has to be in order for it to occur especially along the coast. It is a difficult proposition but not necessarily an impossible one.
EUROPEAN UPPER AIR FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT
What the blocking pattern does is lock the vortex over Eastern Canada up which forces it to rotate around. Cold air gets dragged down. Sometimes you can get disturbances rotating around the upper low and this will probably produce lake effect snows to the northwest. If there is a strong enough disturbance it could create a chance for a cheap thrill of snow showers on Sunday. The more important possibility could evolve later next week. The issue is whether there will be enough “room” for something to happen.
The GFS & European models today open up possibilities for some sort of weather system impacting here Wednesday or Thanksgiving day. The GFS illustrates the problem rather well. You do have all the keys for some sort of snow threat here however the cold vortex to the north is so strong that there may not be enough room for that trough to strengthen as it moves eastward. The European model today argues that side of the argument as it leaves little room for any development. Cold air overwhelms the East on the European which means cold and dry.
European Model Wednesday November 22
As to which model has the upper hand in this I would probably at this point lean toward the European vs the GFS model since it seemed to handle the cold air shot this weekend better than the GFS did in the days before. There is enough variability in both models at this point that we will say the jury is out at this point and will be out for quite awhile.
GFS SNOW FORECAST NEXT 10 DAYS
For you snow lovers out there looking for early reasons to ski, the GFS snowfall forecast map for the next 10 days does reflect a fair amount of action in upstate New York and interior New England to give you some early action. The specifics of the next 10 days will change but it does have the general idea.
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