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Stormy Pattern Lies Ahead

Stormy Pattern Lies Ahead

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Stormy Pattern Lies Ahead

We continue to see the weather pattern get more stormy going forward as we move into December. The 2 day rain we are experiencing now is a good sign that the drought pattern stranglehold is beginning to weaken considerably. Yesterday’s rain was among the top 5 rainfalls of the year and it is the 3rd one on the last month. As the entire upper air pattern continues to evolve, we see several weather systems next week that will threaten. There is a lot of tension in the atmosphere. By this I mean that a number of indices are at or forecast to reach extremes. The continued warming over the polar regions and the displacement of the jet stream further south has finally opened up an alley way for storms to move across the United States with each one having potential to produce.

stormy

While all the model remain emotionally bi-polar from run to run, the European seems to make the most sense going forward at this point. The first system is a weak one that drops down from the northwest Sunday night and that could produce a light mix in some areas or even some snow though it looks weak. The moisture from this may wind up getting left behind to the west. The more important system is the one on the southwest that gets kicked out ahead of a third system in the northwest. Models have been having a lot of difficulty with this. Early model runs were making this into a major storm but now it seems this gets kicked out ahead of a third trough in the northwest. That one on the European becomes a major storm for the upper Midwest later next week.

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The European weather model has low pressure moving into the Ohio Valley and redeveloping along the coast as high pressure builds into New England. Cold air is marginal here but this could be pointing to some icing in areas well inland of the Northeast on Tuesday.

stormy euro192

At the very least it means for 2 more substantial rain events for our area breaking the drought down even more. The third system in the midwest eventually moves to the east coast late next week and again more heavy rain will be produced with cold air behind it after it goes by.

Of course the bi polar nature of the models leads us to have low confidence overall but the more active jet stream pattern is absolutely going to be in play. The southwest system and how it gets kicked out will be key to how weather systems evolve next week. Interesting stormy times ahead.

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