Snow Threat Saturday Coastal Areas
Snow Threat Saturday Coastal Areas
All Models Shift Westward
Beginning with the NAM model overnight and then joined by the GFS, Canadian, and European Models, the storm forecast off the southeast coast of the US has shifted significantly westward. The NAM model had the most dramatic shift taking snow well north and west of the coast.
NAM MODEL FORECAST SATURDAY CLICK TO ANIMATE
This isn’t even the most extreme west solutions as some of the other variations of the NAM went even further north and west. With all the other models trending west the question is whether the trend will continue this afternoon with the next model cycle. Why the shift westward?
Two things are happening that I believe are very important with regards to blocking and the ridge in the west. The North Atlantic Oscilliation which was in an extreme position is going rapidly to neutral. In other words blocking in the Atlantic is collapsing. At the same time the Pacific North America pattern which has been in an extreme negative position is punching to positive this weekend for a brief time. When the PNA is positive it promotes a ridge in the west which intensifies the upper air trough in the east. Those two changes are occurring literally at the last minute. It is possible that the westward shift is not done yet. The NAM model was the first to smell this out yesterday as it began pivoting the coastal low more north northeast south southwest. Now what does this mean for additional snow? Right now I would say that the threat is going to be for Coastal New Jersey and Long Island. I think given these developments they stand the best chance to see snow Saturday into Saturday night. Places west and north of the Garden State Parkway would see far less as well as areas just west and north of New York City. My early call on this 2 days ago I think is how I would like to go at this point for Saturday.
SNOW JOE’S EARLY CALL FOR SATURDAY
Now please bear in mind that if models continue to shift westward, it would not take much to double these amounts or even more. It is important to see whether this westward shift will continue or are models still in catch up mode. Also tonight’s event will be critical to see which model handles it the best in terms of outcome. So far at least it appears the NAM model has opened up a lead over the others.
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