Snow NAM Model Upside Surprise?
Snow NAM Model Upside Surprise?
The last several runs of the NAM model are hinting that an upside surprise could be in the works for somebody. The latest model run continues that recent trend. This is one of those situations where an extra hour or two of steady snow could mean the difference between 2 to 3 inches and 4 or 5 inches. I also am beginning to think that the northern extent of the snow could be a little further to the north. I’m not going to make any changes to my snow forecast from earlier today but I might be doing a little nudging on Thursday.
NAM MODEL 5AM FRIDAY
Anytime the development takes place overhead where you go from nothing to a lot of precipitation can cause forecast problems. The low on this run is a little deeper and a little further north. It isn’t much but it is enough for the model to spit out a little bit more in the way of melted liquid precipitation.
NAM SNOW FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY
The NAM snow forecast map is a little more robust with 3 to 4 inches possible in some places. Other versions of the NAM produce higher amounts over Long Island and parts of coastal New Jersey. We will revisit this in the morning.
Meanwhile skies have cleared for the most part and it will be a cold windy night with temperatures falling into the 20s. Sunshine on Thursday will give way to arriving clouds with highs into the 30s.
Radars will be quiet during the day Thursday but will become active Thursday night with snow overspreading the area and lasting into Friday morning. Much colder weather follows this evening and while the NAM is a little further northwest with the second low but still remains offshore.
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