Snow Ice Storm Upstate Cold Air Drains South
Snow Ice Storm Upstate Cold Air Drains South
We have been talking about the potential snow ice storm for the Ohio Valley, Upstate NY & interior New England. One of the things that happens in situations like this where there is a very cold high pressing in from the north; cold air being heavier likes to drain southward. We have left the door open to that possibility at least for the inland sections just north and west of the coast even though models seem to have been keeping this as a simple rain/cold front with a wave to our west. The door however has been swung open a little wider this afternoon after the European model came in suggesting that cold air may indeed try and drain further south then earlier forecast. NOTHING changes however into Friday night with a warm moist southerly flow head of the frontal boundary and temperatures could reach 60 in some places with rain. That part of the puzzle is locked in regardless of what happens Saturday.
EUROPEAN SATURDAY MORNING 7AM
The big difference between the European and the GFS model is that the European has a much more fractured look to the upper air support. This allows the cold air to the north to be more important and drain southward. The weaker flatter surface low allows the frontal boundary to push just offshore. Given that the cold air mass is indeed an impressive one, the 32 degree line winds up dropping further south faster than the other models. This would open up the possibility to a chance to sleet and freezing rain during the early morning hours across Northeastern Pennsylvania, the Hudson Valley, Northwest New Jersey and Northwest Connecticut. Given that this winter so far has seen weather systems outperform the models in a number of ways we can’t discount this possibility. Snow would not necessarily be an issue since the colder air aloft lags to the northwest but event the European tries to bring that cold air in later Saturday morning. The flatter look also would support precipitation to last longer into early Saturday afternoon. Once surface temperatures drop to below freezing they will stay there. Right now we will continue to mention the possibility of mixing inland as the system pulls ways to the northeast and wait and see what the trends are over the next 48 hours.
EUROPEAN JET STREAM TUESDAY 01102018
The European also leaves the door open (as does the GFS & Canadian model) for a strong trough to drop southeastward and swing around from the Great Lakes which then results in a low developing off the Middle Atlantic Coast later Tuesday into Wednesday. We will be watching developments here over the next several days as well though our first focus will be Friday into Saturday.
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