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Snow Friday Night Saturday Weather Model Analysis

Snow Friday Night Saturday Weather Model Analysis

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Snow Friday Night Saturday Weather Model Analysis

Warm frontal snowfalls are very tricky to forecast. They tend to be a bit more convective in nature which means that you could see some variation in amounts over a given area rather than a blanket even snowfall. Also we are talking about a fast 6 to 8 hour snowfall event. The difference between snowing for 6 hours and snowing for 8 hours could be as much as 2 to 4 inches! Small differences in temperature or wind can make big differences in snow amounts especially along the coast.

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One of the things we will be watching is the development of a small wave on the warm front. All the models have this to some degree. The Canadian model for some reason has the best refection of this.

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You can see where the isobars (dark thin black lines) bulge a bit out to the east of New Jersey. A wave like this could be something that prolongs the snow for a couple of hours which would make a huge difference in snow amounts for someone. In any event it all goes to rain regardless.

snow

The second question is on Sunday. The cold front comes through Sunday morning with colder air behind it. The GFS and to a lesser extent the European Model try to make another wave on that front which changes the rain back to snow on the backside briefly Sunday evening. Most times the rain just shuts off in cases like this and you get no changeover. We will have to see if that wave is real and if other short term models pick up on that over the next few days. Right now I would favor a quick end to the rain Sunday evening maybe as some sleet or snow with little if any impact except in areas further north and west of the coast.

As far as the specific snowfall forecasts you can check my early call post from this morning as I am planning no changes to this. Below is a video of specific snow forecasts for Friday night and Saturday.

 

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