snow

Snow Forecast First Early Call

Snow Forecast First Early Call

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Snow Forecast First Early Call

snow

With regards to the snow this is what I see happening

During the day Sunday into Sunday evening there could be patches of light snow in some places. It might be enough to leave a coating and spots or a little bit more. I don’t think this is problematic.

Steady snow develops Sunday night from west to east and reaches the coast during the early morning hours. I  am leaning toward the ideal of a flatter looking low coming out of the Ohio Valley and matches up somewhat with the Canadian and European View of this.

snow

The GFS model has what I believe an overdeveloped primary low in the Ohio Valley and I think it will be weaker which means it will be colder longer over much of the immediate Coastal Northeast. My concern for areas inland of the coast such as Northern New Jersey, the Hudson Valley and Interior Connecticut north of Route 15 is that temperatures may have a difficult time climbing above freezing on Monday which cold create a period of sleet/freezing rain. But that is a fine tuned detail that needs to be addressed in the shorter range. All of this should come to an end late Monday or Monday evening. For the coast of Central and Southern New Jersey it should be an inch or less. For Central and Eastern Long Island it is always a tricky proposition but for now Im going with the idea of an inch or so there. North of Poughkeepsie in the Hudson Valley, Northern Pennsylvania, Upstate NY, and from Nortthwest Connecticut northward I’m thinking 6 inches or more.

If the more wound up deeper GFS model is correct than you can adjust these amounts downward. A flatter look with a weaker primary low would mean higher amounts further south. For now I feel comfortable with this idea.

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