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Snow Forecast Early Call Saturday Sunday Ice Storm Possibility Grows
This has to be one of the toughest forecasts I have had to make in years. Oddly enough the high end forecast in Northeast Pennsylvania and the middle and upper Hudson Valley is the easy part. Everything else is impossible and hinges on a front end thump of some sort. The second and bigger issue is the 32 degree line and how far north it gets. The high to the north and cold air draining south from New England wedging into Virginia suggests numbers forecast are doable. Then what do we do with the icing situation that could develop even in areas as far south as NYC & interior Long Island.
I’m leaning to the colder NAM’s idea. If we use the November 15th storm as an example the global models did a horrible job handling the extent of low level cold air. Also im leaning to the idea that the temperature boundary in the atmosphere would favor a track further to the east like the overnight European model showed last night and not a coastal hugging land track. The track will impact what we get regrading freezing rain. The bulk of any snow will come on the front end Saturday night from 7pm to 1am..for areas in Southern Pennsylvania it would start closer to 5pm Saturday.
That low position on the European is huge regarding the ice storm potential. To the left with the low on the Jersey coast and the 32 degree line winds up north of Route 84. To the east from last night’s position and the temperature in NYC never gets above 32 and freezing temps extend southwestward to just west of PHL, DCA & Baltimore (barely). Now we watch and wait as models should now start to zero in and vascalations back and forth should narrow.
Regardless of the snow/ice/rain outcome, bitter cold air will come pouring in as temperatures drop through the 20s on Sunday and bottom monday morning in the single digits with below zero readings likely north and west of the coast and warmer urban centers. Numbers on the National Weather Service forecast for Monday morning could be a few degrees too high!
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.