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Snow Cheap Thrill Possible Thursday Morning

Snow Cheap Thrill Possible Thursday Morning Well Inland

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Snow Cheap Thrill Possible Thursday Morning Well Inland

After looking at the overnight model trends and seeing a slightly colder look overall, and a faster look on arriving precipitation on Thursday, it is possible that some areas north and west of the coast could get an early season cheap thrill of sleet or wet snow. In fact it might be more than just a cheap thrill in elevated areas but 2 things have to happen.

  1. Cold air gets wedged in Wednesday night thanks to the blocky pattern we are in. GFS has a colder look to it than the others. NAM Canadian & European are much warmer and slower. The Nam snow is probably a fair compromise snow nam snow

2. Precipitation has to come in during the early morning hours and before daybreak. The GFS rushes it in before daybreak while the others are somewhat slower with the European the slowest. The NAM actually brings it in faster but it pulls the high out faster. You can’t have it both ways. If the high holds the precip holds back.

gfs60 snow

snow

Honestly it may be more sleet than anything else with some wet snowflakes mixed in. But in either case I think it would be for areas north and west of RT 84 in the Hudson Valley and north and west of RT 287/80 in New Jersey and I might be pushing it too far south and west here.

For now the first issue on the table is the possibility of a frost/freeze Wednesday morning it is still on the table and i think areas north and west of the coast stand the best chance of that.

snow freeze

So for the moment we look with all this with a bit of skepticism as far as the snow sleet issue is concerned and see what the next model run brings us later today. The forecasting fun seems to want to start early.

 

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