Showery Rains Gusty Winds Severe Weather Risk As Storm & Cold Front Move East
Today begins the ride downhill as a powerful storm now in the Northern Plains heads for the Great Lakes tonight and then across Southeastern Canada Satuday. This brings a warm front, a cold front, and a strong upper trough that will bring a variety of weather here. Clouds will increase today ahead of the warm front as highs head back into the 50s and we see showery rains late today and tonight though it seems that most of this first round of showers will pass to the north of NYC and Philadelphia. Southern New Jersey, Southern Pennsylvania and points southward will see temperatures reach into the 60s.
SATELLITE
WEATHER RADAR
Late tonight into Saturday morning we will see rain and possibly some scattered thunderstorms. Once the front moves through during the morning hours winds will shift to the southwest and increase sharply especially inland where gusts could reach 40 to 50 mph, mainly west of the New Jersey Pennsylvania state line.
Most of the area from New Jersey, the Hudson Valley and Southern New England will see wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph at times which will be below wind advisory criteria. Once the morning showers are done we could break out into some sunshine and that will send temperatures soaring into the 70s in many areas. Much of the afternoon Saturday will be dry.
Saturday evening a strong upper trough will move from Pennsylvania to Southern New England and with that upper trough there will likley be a narrow line of showers and thunderstorms and there is the risk for some of those thunderstorms to be severe. The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the area of risk from Marginal near the coast and a slight risk inland. The biggest risk from these thunderstorms will be strong wind gusts.
The NAM model loop above and the HRRR model loop below have different views on what happens with the squall line of thunderstorms. The HRRR holds on to those thunderstorms as the narrow line cross Saturday evening. The strength of the upper trough suggests that the thunderstorm line should hold together as it moves through.
Once that front and upper trough move through winds will shift to northwest and they will be strong and gusty into Sunday morning as skies clear out. Sunday will be breezy and colder with sunshine and highs just into the 50s. Next week we will see temperatures edge up a bit starting Monday and most days should see highs in the 60s. A weak front moves through Monday night with not much with it. A stronger cold front is likely to bring a chance for showers late next week.
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