Severe Weather Threat Raised By S.P.C.

Severe Weather Threat Raised By S.P.C.

 

Severe Weather Threat Raised By S.P.C.

The Storm Prediction Center (S.P.C.) of the National Weather Service has expanded the area of severe weather risk slightly and has raised it to a slight risk from maginal risk across Northern and Northwestern New Jersey, Eastern Pennsylvania northward into the Catskills and the Hudson Valley west of the Hudson River with a marginal risk along the New York state border of Connecticut southward to New York City and the rest of New Jersey, Delaware, and Northeastern Maryland. This is due to the approaching cold front and upper air trough that will provide some dynamics for severe weather.

Severe Weather Threat Raised By S.P.C.

Severe Weather Threat Raised By S.P.C.

One of the things that will be in play again today wll be the marine layer that covers coastal areas and has worked its way somewhat inland which of course is a notorious thunderstorm killer. This is way Long Island and the rest of Connecticut are not in the risk area for severe weather though they are in the area of general thunderstorm activity.

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Much of the activity this morning is in upstate New York. We will watch for development in areas nearby and see how it plays out. At the moment there are no severe thunderstorm watches posted. However keep up to date by checking the real time warnings feeds for all areas on the home page.

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Severe Weather Threat Raised By S.P.C. Latest Weather Video

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The latest Nam Model view which I think makes the most sense and has been working well of late shows a few clusters of thunderstorms but no organized line.

NAM MODEL 8PM SATURDAY

NAM12 Severe Weather Threat Raised

It would seem to me that the marine layer is going to impact the extent of thunderstorms and keep them concentrated in a few areas as opposed to widespread activity. The HRRR model on the other hand has a well developed line of thunderstorms. However it did this yesterday which turned out to be totally wrong.

HRRR MODEL SATURDAY 11PM

hrrr11 Severe Weather Threat Raised

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