Severe Weather Risks Next Three Days Laura Remnants Saturday Better Sunday Monday
We are going to be dealing with a weather front going back and forth over the area from Eastern Pennsylvania to Southern New England over the next 3 days. The first move today is a warm front moving northward triggering off some showers this morning and then it is on to heat and humidity. That same front drops back southward tonight and could set up some thunderstorms late today into this evening.
The Storm Prediction Center has a large part of our area at an enhanced risk for severe weather and they are also emphasizing the tornado risk inside the enhanced risk zone showing a 5% chance for a tornado occurring. For this area that risk assessment is rather high and not something we see very often.
The warm front is coming through and we are seeing showers on the radar moving quickly southeastward. Then it is on to the steam bath of heat and humidity. Highs this afternoon will reach into the 90s in many places.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
Daytime heating is going to be key today to the extent of thunderstorms. Also there is an argument to be made the greatest risk may be as you go north into Upstate NY and Central New England verses areas to the south but we will respect the zone that the Storm Prediction Center has put us in.
The Nam model moves an east west line of thunderstorms through during this evening before the storms weaken as they move offshore. This warm front drops through as a cold front and basically stalls on top of us tonight and Friday. This sets up another round of severe weather risk but not as extensive as today and the area will be further south on Friday.
With the frontal boundary setting up literally across New Jersey and Pennsylvania so there will be a rather sharp temperature gradient with highs in the 80s from Connecticut north and east while it will be in the 90s again in the area indicated at risk for thunderstorms.
We are going to turn our attention to Saturday to low pressure moving across the Great Lakes and Northeast with a trailing cold front. The warm front ahead of it goes back north again so that sets us up for showers and thunderstorms running around Friday night and more numerous showers and thunderstorms for Saturday with the cold front approaching and passing through.
Embedded in that frontal boundary will be the remnant low of Hurricane Laura which is forecast to move northward today and further inland in Louisiana and then make a sharp right turn across the Lower Ohio Valley and then exit the coast somewhere near Delaware on a trip northeastward. The main question is whether Laura enhances rains and thunderstorms that we will be getting from the approaching front. The answer to that is yes but probably only in an area close to the low track. Weather Prediction Center folks are talking the potential for a couple of inches of rain here.
With Saturday’s system there is severe weather risk for a third consecutive day. Once this front passes we will be returning to a dry air mass for Sunday and Monday with cooler temperatures and much lower humidity. Sunday highs with sunshine and a nice breeze will be in the upper 70s to around or just over 80 and Monday’s highs with sunshine will be in the 70s!
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.