Severe Weather Risk Wednesday Rain Saturday Night Into Sunday

Severe Weather Risk Wednesday Rain Saturday Night Into Sunday

 

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Severe Weather Risk Wednesday Rain Saturday Night Into Sunday

We have two weather systems to deal with in the next 5 days. The first is Wednesday which is a strong cold front that will pass through Wednesday evening. Ahead of it we will be setting the table for a line of showers and thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening. There is a strong upper trough that lends support to the idea of severe weather risk and the Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk of severe weather however they do indicate there could be an upgrade to slight risk from this if a more unstable atmosphere materializes.

Ahead of the front Wednesday daytime heating should take temperatures well up into the 60s to near 70. We should see partly sunny skies into early afternoon to boost instability. Weather models are showing strong jet streaks in the upper atmosphere which is usually a signature for severe weather

The upper trough is swinging eastward with a 70 knot jet swinging around at lifting up along the East Coast from the Hudson Valley southward into Virginia.

The line forms in the early afternoon in Eastern Pennsylvania reaching NYC and the coast between 4 and 5 pm

Once the line of thunderstorms reaches the longitude of NYC it should weaken as it heads east. This is because the winds on Wednesday will be mostly from the south and that means that areas that face the Atlantic Ocean from the north like Southern New England and Long Island have a marine influence in there which makes the atmosphere less unstable and therefore less supportive of thunderstorms holding together. This is typical of the spring.

WEEKEND BRINGS A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM AND RAIN

For the weekend Saturday will be the better of the two weekend days with sunshine into the afternoon before clouds increase. Low pressure will be moving across the Gulf States and turning northeastward while upper air energy in the northern part of the jet stream juices this system up. Look for rain to arrive Saturday night but the system does move along and the low will be along the central NJ coast by Sunday morning. Rain should come to an end from southwest to northeast during the morning hours.

By mid afternoon the low is near Rhode Island and rains will be done from NYC south and west and ending shortly after 2pm from NYC north and east. Rainfall amounts could be on the order of an inch or so which will help out the dry conditions. Next week could set up dry with warmer temperatures but we will have to watch a backdoor front around midweek that looks to drop southward.

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MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS

Please note that with regards to any severe weather,  tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.

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