Severe Weather Risk Today Improving Cool Weekend Into Next Week
The table is begin set for severe weather this afternoon and the Storm Prediction Center has a rather large area of slight risk from Virginia and West Virginia northeast into Northwestern New England. The eastern edge of the sight risk zone covers all of Pennsylvania, Northwest New Jersey to the Catskills to about Northwest Connecticut with marginal risk to just inland of the immediate coast. The main threat is late this afternoon and tonight as a cold front approaches. In the meantime we have warm and humid conditions this afternoon with highs reaching the 80s. Along the immediate coast it will be cooler with a marine influence and highs just in the 70s. Shore areas will be just in the 60.s
Clouds have broken up across Pennsylvania setting up for some strong daytime heating and clouds to the east will thin out some this afternoon. Then we will start paying attention to the radars going into this evening and tonight. The first storms are starting to fire up on the regional radar at midday.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
The HRRR model develops several lines of storms and as always in cases like this, we will simply have to watch the radars and how and where the storms form. Upstate NY to me carries the highest risk of severe thunderstorms from this cold front as well as Pennsylvania where temperatures are already in the 80s.
Saturday will bring some improvement as we will probably start with some clouds early and then gradually go to a mix of sun and clouds. The cold front gets hung up for a short time Saturday as it waits for an upper trough to swing east and force the front offshore. Highs Saturday will be in the 70s to near 80 in most places. I’m keeping an isolated shower risk to a minimum.
Then skies clear out and turns much cooler Saturday night. This sets us up for a nice cool breezy day on Sunday. Sunshine will be around but highs will just be in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
Sunday night into Monday morning will be quite cool with clear skies. Lows will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Monday should feature a good deal of sunshine but it will be cool with highs mostly in the 60s.
The next warm front cold front combination approaches Tuesday. First will be the warm front Tuesday with clouds coming in and perhaps a couple of showers..more to the north than to the south. Highs will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Then we have a cold front coming later Wednesday with a chance for showers and thunderstorms late in the day. Temperatures will be in the 70s to near 80 or so. Dry air should follow for the end of next week.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.