Severe Weather Risk Saturday Evening
STORM PREDICTION CENTER SEVERE WEATHER RISK SATURDAY
With regards to the weather over the next 5 days much of the time it will be fine. The only risk comes late Saturday afternoon in western areas of New Jersey and Eastern Pennsylvania where the Storm Prediction Center outlines an area of slight risk of severe with a larger area of marginal risk covering the Northern Middle Atlantic and Northeast.
Severe Weather Risk Saturday Evening NAM MODEL SATURDAY 1PM
Severe Weather Risk Saturday Evening GFS MODEL SATURDAY EVENING 8PM
We have a cold front approaching Saturday night but weather models are all over the place on this. The NAM races an area of thunderstorms here Saturday morning into the afternoon. I don’t buy this idea at all. The GFS has something coming through in the evening but it seems like they would be more scattered in nature. The European model has absolutely nothing and keeps everything well inland and west. I think the best approach from a forecast standpoint is to allow for the possibility of thunderstorms and leave it at that.
Severe Weather Risk Saturday Evening GFS UPPER AIR MONDAY 2PM
The only other issue I see is Monday morning with a strong upper air disturbance moving through. The difference between this system and yesterday’s is that the trough position is much further east so this might limit development when it comes through. I would consider the chance for a passing shower or two with this for the time being. Other than these 2 issues the weather looks good through the middle of next week. 70s to near 80 degrees on Friday. Saturday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Sunday will be very warm with highs in the 80s..and then it turns cooler for the first part of next week with highs in the 70s.
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