Severe Weather Risk Late Today Maryland to New England
Dorian Late Week Passes Southeast
The day ahead brings warmer and more humid conditions ahead of the next cold front. The satellite picture this morning shows a few clouds around but we will see some sunshine today taking highs to the mid to upper 80s. Late this afternoon into this evening as the a cold front approaches showers and some thunderstorms will develop. The Storm Prediction Center has much of our area at risk for severe weather and has elevated it to a slight risk from a marginal risk from Northern New Jersey to New England including NYC, Western Long Island & the Hudson Valley. Marginal risk extends back into Central Pennsylvania and southward into the Washington DC/Baltimore area as well as northward into upstate NY.
To the south from North Carolina southward you are seeing some of the high level moisture that is the northern fringe of Hurricane Dorian which is moving north northwest parallel to the Florida coast. To the northwest some showers and thunderstorms are showing up on the regional radar across upstate NY and moving eastward. Nothing is showing up on the local radars right now.
Most of the weather issues with today’s cold front will come this evening during the evening commute so bear that in mind. Weather models all have different ideas as to who gets what when it comes to thunderstorms. The best approach with these situations has been to understand the risk is there and let the radars do the talking late this afternoon and evening. Not everyone will see severe weather today.
There is no change in the forecast logic going forward. Thursday will be cooler with some sunshine and arriving high clouds with a northeast wind and highs just into the 70s. Hurricane Dorian is going to move northward and make a turn to the northeast, essentially straddling the southeast coast from Georgia to North Carolina. Somewhere along the way the center will make landfall anywhere from Charleston to Cape Hatteras depending on how far west it gets. Florida continues to experience tropical storm conditions today into tonight. The eye has expanded as has the storms wind and rain fields. Hurricane force winds extend out about 50 to 60 miles from the center so a close pass will bring hurricane conditions to the Southeast Coast. Dorian will move northeast from the Carolinas Friday and bring rain probably as far north as coastal New Jersey and Long Island back to about NYC & Coastal Connecticut. North and west of this line will see very little more than overcast skies. Gales will remain offshore or perhaps briefly touch the coast. Dorian will head toward Nova Scotia and New Foundland Saturday and Saturday as it morphs into a powerful post tropical storm system. We will see improving weather conditions here this weekend with lots of sunshine with most highs in the low to mid 70s.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.