Severe Weather Risk Late Today As Cold Front Approaches

The Storm Prediction Center has nudged higher the risk of severe weather over the Northeast late this afternoon into tonight. Another day of 90 degree temperatures are likely especially away from the coast. A cold front approaches with some strong dynamics aloft so the triggers are certainly there for severe thunderstorms. The slight risk area covers Northwest New Jersey to the Hudson Valley & Western New England with a marginal risk indicated east of there to the coast.

At the moment much of the action involves some downpours that are moving across Northern Pennsylvania through Upstate NY. Not much should happen south of Route 84 at least until late this afternoon into this evening. For much of the area most of the day side will be dry with no showers. How much cloud cover and warming we get will be key to any developing thunderstorms late today.

Not all the weather models are in agreement with the idea of thunderstorms this evening. The NAM model actually pains a rather weak picture of thunderstorm activity this evening while the HRRR model has a more bullish scenario as do a few other models.

HRRR MODEL FRIDAY MAY 4, 2018 7PM

Yesterday’s activity outperformed what models were indicating so we are going to lean more toward the HRRR models view which shows some thunderstorms developing late today and impacting a larger geographic area. The second line in Central Pennsylvania likely falls apart after dark. Once this front goes by we seem to be done with any severe weather threat going forward into next week as a gradual cool down gets underway.

FiOS1 News Weather Forecast For Long Island

FiOS1 News Weather Forecast For New Jersey

FiOS1 News Weather Forecast For Hudson Valley