Severe Weather Risk Kicks Off July 4th Weekend Nice Mostly Dry Sunday Monday
We begin the day with clouds and showers moving through upstate NY and New England. The southern end of that shower area extends southward into Eastern Pennsylvania. Once these showers play through we should see some sunshine break through the clouds later today and begin the process of daytime heating. This puts us in line for severe weather risk late today as the overnight forecast from the Storm Prediction Center shows. However sometimes in cases where we get these rains early in the day ahead of the cold front, they tend to stabilize the atmosphere and reduce the chances for severe weather.
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WEATHER RADAR
The risk for severe weather will be determined later today once we see how the day evolves. For now let us call it as showers giving way to some and the chance for evening thunderstorms. Highs will be mostly in the 80s and humidity levels will be on the high side. The best chances for thunderstorm development I think will be from Route 78 to NYC, Long Island and points south.
The front will hang for awhile early Sunday morning and that could produce some leftover clouds and showers especially along the coast and from New Jersey south but by midday drier air from the north will bring decreasing clouds and increasing sunshine. Highs will be into the 80s but humidity levels will drop rather sharply making it more comfortable.
Dry air will be the dominating feature for Sunday night and Monday the 4th of July. Dew points will drop into the 50s and even some 40s Sunday afternoon and we should still have dew points in the rather comfortable 50s to near 60 Monday. We are looking a lots of sunshine, no rain and highs Monday in the low to middle 80s.
it is a wash rinse repeat pattern all week with cold fronts every couple of days. The next one is due Tuesday with the chance for showers and thunderstorms and another late in the week. So the process is we warm up and turn more humid ahead of it Tuesday with highs in the 80s to near 90. It turns a little cooler and a little less humid Wednesday into Thursday and then warm up with the chance for thunderstorms again late in the week.
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Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.
