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Severe Weather Marginal Risk Pushed Northward Showers Thunderstorms Tonight
The first burst of downpours have moved to the northeast this morning and the next thing to watch for is passing showers during the day and then followed by downpours and thunderstorms late this afternoon and tonight. The Storm Prediction Center has pushed its risk area further north for this afternoon and tonight with a slight risk for severe weather reaching into Southern New Jersey and Southeastern Pennsylvania and a marginal risk to Central New Jersey to Route 195.
How far north the strong thunderstorms get will depend on how far north the warm sector gets and does the warm front get pinched off.Temperatures today in the slight risk area will likely reach into the 70s with the 70 degree line probably getting to where the northern edge of the marginal risk is. 60s are likely elsewhere and along the coast on Long Island northward into Connecticut, 50s to near 60 is likely thanks to a south wind. Low pressure is moving northeast into Western New York with the trailing cold front running southward to the Carolinas to Northern Florida. The system is very well defined on the satellite loop below.
Radars are clearly busy this morning. Heavy rains are moving through Connecticut and Southeast New England. More downpours are setting up in Western Pennsylvania and those are moving northeast. Some scattered thunderstorms in the mix as well.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
Throughout the day we will be seeing passing showers. They will likely be a bit more numerous from Western New Jersey westward until the front pivots eastward later today. Along the coast from NYC east to Long Island showers will be much more scattered until this evening when the front nears. The influence of the wind coming in from off the ocean would argue for thunderstorms to be weaker however the upper air support for this low and cold front is impressive and this might compensate somewhat for the negative influence of cooler marine air.
At least everything moves along so weather conditions improve for later tonight and then we head into a weekend. The outlook for Saturday and Sunday is not that simple. The storm system here strengthens and the pressure gradient tightens which means gusty winds of 20 to 30 mph from the northwest and at best a mix of sun and clouds. Temperatures are going to probably be constrained with highs just in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
On to Sunday where low pressure moves out of the Great Lakes and cuts across New Jersey Sunday afternoon. North of the low track look for cloudy and rainy conditions with temperatures just in the 40s. There might even be some wet snow mixed in over elevated areas in the Catskills and the Hudson Valley. South of the low track in Central & South Jersey and Southeast of Pennsylvania we could see some breaks of sunshine and highs in the 60s!
Next week looks tough with a frontal boundary developing near by and we will be watching this boundary swing back and forth all week long as areas of low pressure move along it. An onshore flow means multiple opportunities for clouds and showers next week and we will break this down a bit more once we get through today’s messy weather situation.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.