COLD FRONT WITH INTENSIFYING WAVE BRINGS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY DRY, MORE RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK
We have a cold front that is nearing this morning but it is going to do the big stall today. We are going to have to wait for a second wave to develop on that front and move by Saturday morning. This sets the table for some showers today and we have some already on the radar this morning moving through though it is not widespread at the moment. Much of today the rain will be showering in nature with dry gaps in between. Then we will get into some heavier downpours and some thunderstorms tonight. Until the front moves through the risk is there for some of the thunderstorms to get strong and the Storm Prediction Center has us at a marginal risk for severe weather.
The rounds of showers today plus the steadier rain tonight into Saturday morning will produce total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches in most places so if we wind up seeing some stronger thunderstorms, then we could see some localized flooding in the usual suspect spots.
This morning is a warm humid one. We have temperatures in the 60s with a gusty south to southwest wind underway in some areas. Temperatures today will likely reach into the upper 60s to lower 70s with the frontal boundary this morning in Western Pennsylvania. It should near the coast tonight before stalling out waiting for the second wave to develop.
Showers are on the regional and local radars this morning as they move along to the northeast. Notice that there isn’t a solid area of coverage. Also there is a line of strong thunderstorms developing in Central Pennsylvania this morning inching its way to the east. We will need to watch the staying power of this line as it enters the range of the local radars in a few hours.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
Once the second wave develops and goes by, and the rain tonight and Saturday morning plays through we will see weather conditions begin to improve as the rain comes to an end. However the second wave is going to intensify as it move into New England and the pressure gradient will get very tight. Therefore a High Wind Watch is posted for Saturday afternoon and evening.
The watch covers the area from Northeast New Jersey to NYC, Long Island, the Hudson Valley and New England. Here there is risk for winds gusting to 50 mph or more. The pressure gradient tightens between the low pressure in Northern New England and high pressure in the Central Appalachians.
At least the rain will be ending from west to east Saturday morning. Dry weather takes over through Sunday ans the high builds in and the winds diminish. Temperatures over the weekend will be in the 50s. The wind turns onshore on Sunday and then the first of two systems makes it approach on Monday. The low in the Plains heads northeast into the Great Lakes and we get into some Atlantic moisture from the onshore flow and a warm front to the south. Tuesday into Wednesday brings a stronger storm into the Great Lakes and a good chance for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday. We will be in the 50s Monday and the 60s Tuesday with colder air following the midweek storm.
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MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
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