Severe Thunderstorms Watch Posted Strong Winds Hail Possible
The Storm Prediction Center has put up a severe thunderstorm watch for this afternoon and evening covering an area across much of Southern and Central New England, the Hudson Valley and the Catskills south to NYC and just skimming Long Island, Northern New Jersey and Northeastern Pennsylvania until 8pm.
Regional radar is picking up on bands of showers and thunderstorms as they rotate around an upper low forming over Northern New England. The atmosphere is highly unstable and you can certainly feel the high humidity as temperatures continue to rise. These storms will produce strong winds of 60 mph or more as well as the potential for large hail.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
Some pf the pop up thunderstorms up until now have been short lived near the coast. There may be a bit of a sea breeze front setting up over Long Island which creates small storms that come and go within the span of an hour or so. In the meantime we just watch the radars and see how they progress. Look for activity to pick up in the next few hours.
The week ahead is going to be all about the upper low that is sitting over New England and it doesn’t move much until late in the week. This puts us in a rather unstable atmosphere over the next few days. Mornings will start out sunny before instability takes hold and that allows for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. I have them in the forecast for Monday through at least Wednesday. Temperatures Monday will be in a range of between 85 and 90 degrees. Dew points will be ever so slightly lower Monday and Tuesday but it will still be on the humid side. I would suspect that we could see isolated severe thunderstorms each afternoon so each day this week will be an eye to the sky kind of day. Not everyone will see storms so it is effectively a dice roll.
Thursday we will begin to see the upper low pull out and a cold front dropping southward from Eastern Canada or as we call them back door fronts. Thursday will be very warm to hot and humid ahead of it with highs in the mid 80s to near 90. We will watch for a shower or thunderstorm Thursday night. Then it turns a bit less humid as high pressure builds southward from Eastern Canada. There should be some sunshine Friday with highs mostly in the 80s. The weekend calls for some sunshine on Saturday the 4th of July with highs in the low to mid 80s and perhaps a pop up shower or thunderstorm inland. We will hold the same idea for Sunday though the GFS model above is a little more pessimistic for Sunday. Given the volatility of the model runs lately we will remain optimistic for all three days of the holiday weekend.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.