Saturday Snow Still Unresolved

Saturday Snow Still Unresolved

Saturday Snow Still Unresolved

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Trying to figure out what is going to happen Saturday is a forecast nightmare. Every model has a different skew on what is going to happen. This is what I can say from all of this.

SNOW FALL COULD RANGE FROM AS LITTLE AS A COATING TO   3 OR 4 INCHES IN SOME PLACES

WITH WIDE VARIABLITY

What I mean by this is between the factors of time of day, elevation, and  where the narrow band of precipitation sets up could mean that some spots will finish with some odd amounts while others not that far away would see very little. Just look at the snowfall forecast maps from the different models and you can see the forecast dilemma. The GFS model is especially aggressive for inland areas where there is elevation.Saturday Snow Still Unresolved Model Snowfall Forecasts

 

 Saturday Snow Still Unresolved

WEATHER MODEL SNOWFALL FORECASTS

gfssnow Saturday Snow Still Unresolved namsnow Saturday Snow Still Unresolved rgemsnow Saturday Snow Still Unresolved

TRACK OF UPPER LOW IS KEY

The dynamics of this system are impressive. Where the upper air storm winds up and how it tracks across the area will determine where the heavy snow band lines up. And it could line up differently from any of the models. The NAM especially has a fairly intense upper feature that moves offshore and then tracks straight east. The GFS model is similar but a little further north.

Saturday Snow Still Unresolved

NAM & GFS UPPER AIR PATTERN

nam30 Saturday Snow Still Unresolvednam30 Saturday Snow Still Unresolved

This is why at this point I am pretty much sticking with my snowfall forecast map from this morning. Honestly trying to pinpoint a max amount and a general area of snow is next to impossible.

Saturday Snow Still Unresolved

JOE’S SNOWFALL FORECAST MAP

snow04092016 Saturday Snow Still Unresolved

I am going to tell you right now that this map could be way off. It is certainly possible that the area of a heavier snow could shift east north or south. I think the best way to approach this is by emphasizing varaiblity. Bust potential in both directions is very high.

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