Rain Warmer Air Before Front Moves Through Temperatures Fall Snow Likely Wednesday Morning
We are starting to cloud up across the area and with the cold air mass now moving out to the east rather rapidly and a southerly flow taking over, temperatures will go no where tonight. They will pretty much hold where they are this evening or even rise a little after midnight. There isn’t much happening now on the regional radar but we are beginning to see some showers showing up in North Carolina. Before too long those showers will be moving northward and coastal areas from New Jersey to Southern New England will see some showers around daybreak.
Moisture is also streaming eastward into the Ohio Valley and that will produce an area of rain to the west that will move eastward during Monday. The bottom line is that it won’t be a very nice day from Eastern Pennsylvania to Southern New England with on and off rain with some heavy downpours from time to time. Rainfall amounts will increase as you go north and east of NYC.
The rain moves out Monday night and Tuesday will be a warm day with clouds and highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s before the cold front comes through late in the day. I don’t expect much Tuesday other than a passing shower. Once the front passes we will likely start to see rain develop late evening or around midnight. Cold air comes rushing in Tuesday night changing the rain to snow during the early morning hours.
This won’t be a major snowfall because the system is moving rather quickly so it will be a matter of how much you can squeeze out as the cold air arrives. By daybreak Wednesday we will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s just about everywhere. All of this will be done by noon in most places. Then it will turn even colder Wednesday night into Thursday morning with lows in the teens and lower 20s.
As far as snow amounts are concerned we are thinking this will be in a 1 to 3 inch range for most of the area. Given the warm temperatures of the day before, we would likely lose an hour or two of accumulaton after the change over unless it comes down hard for a few hours. I went about 1/2 of what some of the more aggressive models are indicating. Below is the National Weather Service composite snow forecast map.
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National Weather Service snow forecast maps from Maine to South Carolina are available on my two free weather apps so be sure to download those free apps. My early call snow forecast is up on my weather platform on Patreon along with additional weather model analysis.
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