Rain Sunday Less Impressive Warmer Late Next Week

Rain Sunday Less Impressive Warmer Late Next Week

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SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE FORMS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC

 

Rain Sunday Less Impressive Warmer Late Next Week

As we get closer to the weekend it appears that the rain Sunday looks less impressive on all the weather models today. I think we will still have a rather cloudy dismal day with some rain as low pressure goes by to the south but the weaker profile of the weather system aloft would suggest lighter rain amounts as opposed to anything substantial (over an inch). Today’s European weather model illustrates this well.

EUROPEAN WEATHER MODEL SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY CLICK TO ANIMATE

rain sunday

The system in the southern part of the jet stream is rather potent but what happens is the northern part of the jet stream from Canada bypasses it rather than lifting it up. Animate the gif above and you can see how the northern part of the jet stream completely misses the southern system. Part of it will lift up close enough to put us in clouds and some rain but nothing like what the model was showing a few days ago. There is a suggestion on the European that a second arm in that northern jet could lift up the remaining piece of that trough later Tuesday but this is a very questionable solution. For now we will lay it aside to see how models handle this.

WARM SPRING WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE BUILDS

The other development is a very strong upper ridge builds in the east as a deep trough drops down in the Western US. This idea has strong support from other models and ANGRY BEN this morning talked about this in his long range

EUROPEAN MODEL WARM SPRING WEATHER IN THE EAST CLICK TO ANIMATE

rain sunday

A strong ridge like this in the east would lead to much above normal temperatures late next week with temperatures in the 70s and 80s.

TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE LATE NEXT WEEK

rain sunday

Two notes of caution. The first is whether there will be any kind of onshore flow that develops and the Canadian is less bullish with the overall warming as it develops a system to the northeast which would keep the warmest air west and northwest of our area. The odds seem to favor a burst of warm weather for a few days late next week given that it has been the signature of this month so far.

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